Meta Ventures into Prediction Markets Amid Metaverse Struggles

Meta, the company formerly known as Facebook, is pivoting toward prediction markets with a new internal project dubbed Arena. The app, as reported by The New York Times, would allow users to forecast outcomes in politics, sports, and global events using points—a stark contrast to its costly metaverse ambitions.

The move comes as Reality Labs, Meta's metaverse division, continues to hemorrhage cash. Operating losses reached $17.7 billion in 2024 and $19.2 billion in 2025, pushing cumulative losses close to $90 billion. Horizon Worlds, its flagship VR platform, languishes with fewer than 200,000 monthly active users—far below initial targets.

Prediction markets offer Meta a proven demand base but come with regulatory complexities. Whether this marks a shrewd strategic shift or another expensive misstep remains uncertain. The company's track record with high-cost, low-return ventures looms large.